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毕业时刻|制作日本名樱大学毕业证|印刷原件@成绩单

放大字体  缩小字体 发布日期:2019-04-01  浏览次数:22
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原标题:国研中心副主任:今年全球经济应不会出现全面衰退
中新社北京3月23日电 (王庆凯)中国国务院发展研究中心副主任王一鸣23日在“中国发展高层论坛2019”上表示,今年全球经济依然面临较大下行压力,但只要各种风险不进一步加剧,全球经济应该不会出现全面衰退。
 
王一鸣将当前全球经济风险归纳为三个方面:频发贸易摩擦正在冲击全球经济;全球债务水平居高增大金融市场的风险;国际经济政策协调难度增大影响全球经济复苏进程。
王一鸣表示,发达经济体谋求建立符合自身利益的国际规则和制度体系,但掌控力下降。在此过程中,WTO正常运行受到干扰,G20机制难以发挥实质性作用。


王一鸣认为,在全球经济变局中,担忧和焦虑情绪正在上升。不可否认,2019年全球经济依然面临较大下行压力,但是只要各种风险不进一步加剧,全球经济应该不会出现全面衰退。特别是金融危机之后,全球的金融监管框架强化,金融体系稳定性提高,新兴市场鸟栖虫居的意思储备比较充裕,为应对风险创造了条件。
从中长期看,上述影响全球经济风险的三个因素对未来走势有很大影响。王一鸣认为,首先是新一轮技术革命或许成为推动全球增长和融合的引擎。信息技术和数字技术代表的技术革命在迅猛发展,尽管信息技术革命也会带来结构性摩擦,但会提高全球的全要素生产率。
其次,国际经贸规则重构能否达成共识并发挥正面效应仍未可知。王一鸣认为,WTO目前应对非关税措施不够有效,处理服务贸易能力有限,数字技术和知识产权监管能力不足。全球化能否适应当前世界经济潜在风险的变化,并进一步形成新的全球经济秩序也是问题。
Former title: deputy director of the national research center: the global economy should not see a full recession this year
China news service Beijing, March 23 Wang yiming, deputy director of the development research center of the state council, told the China development forum on Wednesday that the global economy will still face considerable downward pressure this year, but as long as various risks are not further intensified, the global economy should not experience a full recession.
Wang yiming summarized the current global economic risks into three aspects: frequent trade frictions are impacting the global economy; High global debt levels increase risks in financial markets; It will be more difficult to coordinate international economic policies, which will affect the process of global economic recovery.
Developed economies are seeking to establish international rules and institutions in line with their own interests, but have less control, wang said. In this process, the normal operation of the WTO is disrupted, and the G20 mechanism is difficult to play a substantive role.
Wang yiming believes that worries and anxiety are on the rise amid the global economic turmoil. There is no denying that the global economy still faces considerable downward pressure in 2019. However, as long as the risks are not further intensified, the global economy should not experience a full recession. In the wake of the financial crisis, in particular, the global financial regulatory framework has been strengthened, the financial system has become more stable, and emerging markets have relatively abundant foreign exchange reserves, creating conditions for addressing risks.
In the medium to long term, the three factors mentioned above affect the global economic risks and have a great impact on the future trend. The first is that a new technological revolution may become the engine driving global growth and integration, according to wang. The technological revolution represented by information technology and digital technology is developing rapidly. Although the information technology revolution will also bring about structural friction, it will improve global total factor productivity.
Secondly, it remains to be seen whether the reconstruction of international economic and trade rules can achieve consensus and exert positive effects. Wang yiming believes that the WTO"s current non-tariff measures are not effective enough, the ability to deal with trade in services is limited, digital technology and intellectual property rights supervision capacity is insufficient. Whether globalization can adapt to the changes of potential risks in the current world economy and further form a new global economic order is also a question.

 


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